cancer risk prediction | Chiara Herzog

A strong focus of my work is to utilise epigenetics (DNA methylation) as a molecular tool for early cancer detection and risk prediction. We utilise non-invasive collection of samples (e.g., cervical, buccal, or blood samples) to improve women’s health and reduce the burden of breast, ovarian, endometrial, and cervical cancer. I have written a summary of our rationale and approach for the Nature Portfolio Cancer Community, Harnessing the epigenetic footprint to detect breast and ovarian cancer using cervical samples.

We are continuously investigating how these biomarkers can be employed for dynamic monitoring of cancer risk over time, as well as assessing the efficacy of preventive strategies. Ultimately, these insights could lead to improved adaptive/personalized screening and prevention programs. Our vision is to use biomarkers in a way analogous to blood pressure monitoring for preventing cardiovascular disease - identifying individuals at increased risk, suggesting preventive strategies, monitoring their effectiveness, and making necessary adjustments if needed.

Aspects of this work are published in:

2022

A Simple Cervicovaginal Epigenetic Test for Screening and Rapid Triage of Women With Suspected Endometrial Cancer: Validation in Several Cohort and Case/Control Sets

Chiara Herzog*, Fátima Marín*, Allison Jones, and 28 more authors

Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2022

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PURPOSE: Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence has been rising over the past 10 years. Delays in diagnosis reduce survival and necessitate more aggressive treatment. We aimed to develop and validate a simple, noninvasive, and reliable triage test for EC to reduce the number of invasive diagnostic procedures and improve patient survival.
METHODS: We developed a test to screen and triage women with suspected EC using 726 cervical smear samples from women with and without EC, and validated the test in 562 cervicovaginal samples using three different collection methods (cervical smear: n = 248; vaginal swab: n = 63; and self-collection: n = 251) and four different settings (case/control: n = 388; cohort of women presenting with postmenopausal bleeding: n = 63; a cohort of high-risk women with Lynch syndrome: n = 25; and a nested case/control setting from a screening cohort and samples taken up to 3 years before EC diagnosis: n = 86).
RESULTS: We describe the Women’s cancer risk IDentification – quantitative polymerase chain reaction test for Endometrial Cancer (WID-qEC), a three-marker test that evaluates DNA methylation in gene regions of GYPC and ZSCAN12. In cervical, self-collected, and vaginal swab samples derived from symptomatic patients, it detected EC with sensitivities of 97.2% (95% CI, 90.2 to 99.7), 90.1% (83.6 to 94.6), and 100% (63.1 to 100), respectively, and specificities of 75.8% (63.6 to 85.5), 86.7% (79.3 to 92.2), and 89.1% (77.8 to 95.9), respectively. The WID-qEC identified 90.9% (95% CI, 70.8 to 98.9) of EC cases in samples predating diagnosis up to 1 year. Test performance was similar across menopausal status, age, stage, grade, ethnicity, and histology.
CONCLUSION: The WID-qEC is a noninvasive reliable test for triage of women with symptoms suggestive of ECs. Because of the potential for self-collection, it could improve early diagnosis and reduce the reliance for in-person visits.

2022

The WID-BC-index identifies women with primary poor prognostic breast cancer based on DNA methylation in cervical samples

James E. Barrett*, Chiara Herzog*, Allison Jones, and 22 more authors

Nature Communications, 2022

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Genetic and non-genetic factors contribute to breast cancer development. An epigenome-based signature capturing these components in easily accessible samples could identify women at risk. Here, we analyse the DNA methylome in 2,818 cervical, 357 and 227 matched buccal and blood samples respectively, and 42 breast tissue samples from women with and without breast cancer. Utilising cervical liquid-based cytology samples, we develop the DNA methylation-based Women’s risk IDentification for Breast Cancer index (WID-BC-index) that identifies women with breast cancer with an AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic) of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.88) and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.76–0.86) in internal and external validation sets, respectively. CpGs at progesterone receptor binding sites hypomethylated in normal breast tissue of women with breast cancer or in BRCA mutation carriers are also hypomethylated in cervical samples of women with poor prognostic breast cancer. Our data indicate that a systemic epigenetic programming defect is highly prevalent in women who develop breast cancer. Further studies validating the WID-BC-index may enable clinical implementation for monitoring breast cancer risk. Breast cancer is most commonly diagnosed via a needle biopsy. In this study, the authors show that cervical samples from women with breast cancer have a methylation signature different to that of healthy controls.
The DNA methylome of cervical cells can predict the presence of ovarian cancer

James E. Barrett, Allison Jones, Iona Evans, and 10 more authors

Nature Communications, 2022

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The vast majority of epithelial ovarian cancer arises from tissues that are embryologically derived from the Müllerian Duct. Here, we demonstrate that a DNA methylation signature in easy-to-access Müllerian Duct-derived cervical cells from women with and without ovarian cancer (i.e. referred to as the Women’s risk IDentification for Ovarian Cancer index or WID-OC-index) is capable of identifying women with an ovarian cancer in the absence of tumour DNA with an AUC of 0.76 and women with an endometrial cancer with an AUC of 0.81. This and the observation that the cervical cell WID-OC-index mimics the epigenetic program of those cells at risk of becoming cancerous in BRCA1/2 germline mutation carriers (i.e. mammary epithelium, fallopian tube fimbriae, prostate) further suggest that the epigenetic misprogramming of cervical cells is an indicator for cancer predisposition. This concept has the potential to advance the field of risk-stratified cancer screening and prevention. Most ovarian cancers originate from cells originally derived from Müllerian Duct cells. Here, the authors show that the methylation profile of Müllerian Duct cells isolated from cervical samples can predict whether a woman has cervical cancer.

2023

DNA methylation at quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) varies with cell type and nonheritable factors and may improve breast cancer risk assessment

Chiara Herzog, Allison Jones, Iona Evans, and 8 more authors

npj Precision Oncology, 2023

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To individualise breast cancer (BC) prevention, markers to follow a person’s changing environment and health extending beyond static genetic risk scores are required. Here, we analysed cervical and breast DNA methylation (n=1848) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (n=1442) and demonstrate that a linear combination of methylation levels at 104 BC-associated methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL) CpGs, termed the WID™-qtBC index, can identify women with breast cancer in hormone-sensitive tissues (AUC=0.71 [95% CI: 0.65–0.77] in cervical samples). Women in the highest combined risk group (high polygenic risk score and WID™-qtBC) had a 9.6-fold increased risk for BC [95% CI: 4.7–21] compared to the low-risk group and tended to present at more advanced stages. Importantly, the WID™-qtBC is influenced by non-genetic BC risk factors, including age and body mass index, and can be modified by a preventive pharmacological intervention, indicating an interaction between genome and environment recorded at the level of the epigenome. Our findings indicate that methylation levels at mQTLs in relevant surrogate tissues could enable integration of heritable and non-heritable factors for improved disease risk stratification.

2022

The WID-CIN test identifies women with, and at risk of, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and invasive cervical cancer

James E. Barrett, Karin Sundström, Allison Jones, and 5 more authors

Genome Medicine, 2022

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Cervical screening is transitioning from primary cytology to primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing. HPV testing is highly sensitive but there is currently no high-specificity triage method for colposcopy referral to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or above (CIN3+) in women positive for high-risk (hr) HPV subtypes. An objective, automatable test that could accurately perform triage, independently of sample heterogeneity and age, is urgently required. We analyzed DNA methylation at 850,000 CpG sites across the genome in a total of 1254 cervical liquid-based cytology (LBC) samples from cases of screen-detected histologically verified CIN1-3+ (98% hrHPV-positive) and population-based control women free from any cervical disease (100% hrHPV-positive). Samples were provided by a state-of-the-art population-based cohort biobank and consisted of (i) a discovery set of 170 CIN3+ cases and 202 hrHPV-positive/cytology-negative controls; (ii) a diagnostic validation set of 87 CIN3+, 90 CIN2, 166 CIN1, and 111 hrHPV-positive/cytology-negative controls; and (iii) a predictive validation set of 428 cytology-negative samples (418 hrHPV-positive) of which 210 were diagnosed with CIN3+ in the upcoming 1–4 years and 218 remained disease-free. We developed the WID-CIN (Women’s cancer risk IDentification-Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia) test, a DNA methylation signature consisting of 5000 CpG sites. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) in the independent diagnostic validation set was 0.92 (95% CI 0.88–0.96). At 75% specificity (≤CIN1), the overall sensitivity to detect CIN3+ is 89.7% (83.3–96.1) in all and 92.7% (85.9–99.6) and 65.6% (49.2–82.1) in women aged ≥30 and <30. In hrHPV-positive/cytology-negative samples in the predictive validation set, the WID-CIN detected 54.8% (48.0–61.5) cases developing 1–4 years after sample donation in all ages or 56.9% (47.6–66.2) and 53.5% (43.7–63.2) in ≥30 and <30-year-old women, at a specificity of 75%. The WID-CIN test identifies the vast majority of hrHPV-positive women with current CIN3+ lesions. In the absence of cytologic abnormalities, a positive WID-CIN test result is likely to indicate a significantly increased risk of developing CIN3+ in the near future.

2022

The WID‐qEC test: Performance in a hospital‐based cohort and feasibility to detect endometrial and cervical cancers

Lena Schreiberhuber, Chiara Herzog, Charlotte D. Vavourakis, and 13 more authors

International Journal of Cancer, 2022

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The majority of endometrial and cervical cancers present with abnormal vaginal bleeding but only a small proportion of women suffering from vaginal bleeding actually have such a cancer. A simple, operator‐independent and accurate test to correctly identify women presenting with abnormal bleeding as a consequence of endometrial or cervical cancer is urgently required. We have recently developed and validated the WID‐qEC test, which assesses DNA methylation of ZSCAN12 and GYPC via real‐time PCR, to triage women with symptoms suggestive of endometrial cancer using ThinPrep‐based liquid cytology samples. Here, we investigated whether the WID‐qEC test can additionally identify women with cervical cancer. Moreover, we evaluate the test’s applicability in a SurePath‐based hospital‐cohort by comparing its ability to detect endometrial and cervical cancer to cytology. In a set of 23 cervical cancer cases and 28 matched controls the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) is 0.99 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.97‐1.00) with a sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 92.9%, respectively. Amongst the hospital‐cohort (n = 330), the ROC AUC is 0.99 (95% CI: 0.98‐1) with a sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 82.5% for the WID‐qEC test, respectively, and 33.3% and 96.9% for cytology (considering PAP IV/V as positive). Our data suggest that the WID‐qEC test detects both endometrial and cervical cancer with high accuracy. While abnormal vaginal bleeding is a presenting symptom of endometrial and cervical cancers, only a small proportion of women who present with vaginal bleeding have endometrial or cervical cancer. Currently, the tests used to triage women with abnormal bleeding, such as ultrasound or cytology, are subjective and have modest accuracy. Here, the authors demonstrate that a real‐time PCR‐based test, which assesses DNA methylation at three gene regions using a cervical or vaginal sample, is able to identify 100% of women who have cervical or endometrial cancer with a high specificity (>80%), irrespective of the sample collection system.

2022

DNA methylation-based detection and prediction of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and invasive cervical cancer with the WID™-qCIN test

Chiara Herzog*, Karin Sundström*, Allison Jones, and 14 more authors

Clinical Epigenetics, 2022

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Cervical screening using primary human papilloma virus (HPV) testing and cytology is being implemented in several countries. Cytology as triage for colposcopy referral suffers from several shortcomings. HPV testing overcomes some of these but lacks specificity in women under 30. Here, we aimed to develop and validate an automatable triage test that is highly sensitive and specific independently of age and sample heterogeneity, and predicts progression to CIN3+ in HPV+ patients. The WID™-qCIN, assessing three regions in human genes DPP6, RALYL, and GSX1, was validated in both a diagnostic (case–control) and predictive setting (nested case–control), in a total of 761 samples. Using a predefined threshold, the sensitivity of the WID™-qCIN test was 100% and 78% to detect invasive cancer and CIN3, respectively. Sensitivity to detect CIN3+ was 65% and 83% for women < and ≥ 30 years of age. The specificity was 90%. Importantly, the WID™-qCIN test identified 52% of ≥ 30-year-old women with a cytology negative (cyt−) index sample who were diagnosed with CIN3 1–4 years after sample donation. We identified suitable DNAme regions in an epigenome-wide discovery using HPV+ controls and CIN3+ cases and established the WID™-qCIN, a PCR-based DNAme test. The WID™-qCIN test has a high sensitivity and specificity that may outperform conventional cervical triage tests and can in an objective, cheap, and scalable fashion identify most women with and at risk of (pre-)invasive cervical cancer. However, evaluation was limited to case–control settings and future studies will assess performance and generalisability in a randomised controlled trial.

2022

Antiprogestins reduce epigenetic field cancerization in breast tissue of young healthy women

Thomas E. Bartlett, Iona Evans, Allison Jones, and 20 more authors

Genome Medicine, 2022

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Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in premenopausal women. Progesterone drives expansion of luminal progenitor cells, leading to the development of poor-prognostic breast cancers. However, it is not known if antagonising progesterone can prevent breast cancers in humans. We suggest that targeting progesterone signalling could be a means of reducing features which are known to promote breast cancer formation. In healthy premenopausal women with and without a BRCA mutation we studied (i) estrogen and progesterone levels in saliva over an entire menstrual cycle (n = 20); (ii) cancer-free normal breast-tissue from a control population who had no family or personal history of breast cancer and equivalently from BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (n = 28); triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) biopsies and healthy breast tissue taken from sites surrounding the TNBC in the same individuals (n = 14); and biopsies of ER+ve/PR+ve stage T1–T2 cancers and healthy breast tissue taken from sites surrounding the cancer in the same individuals (n = 31); and (iii) DNA methylation and DNA mutations in normal breast tissue (before and after treatment) from clinical trials that assessed the potential preventative effects of vitamins and antiprogestins (mifepristone and ulipristal acetate; n = 44). Daily levels of progesterone were higher throughout the menstrual cycle of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, raising the prospect of targeting progesterone signalling as a means of cancer risk reduction in this population. Furthermore, breast field cancerization DNA methylation signatures reflective of (i) the mitotic age of normal breast epithelium and (ii) the proportion of luminal progenitor cells were increased in breast cancers, indicating that luminal progenitor cells with elevated replicative age are more prone to malignant transformation. The progesterone receptor antagonist mifepristone reduced both the mitotic age and the proportion of luminal progenitor cells in normal breast tissue of all control women and in 64% of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. These findings were validated by an alternate progesterone receptor antagonist, ulipristal acetate, which yielded similar results. Importantly, mifepristone reduced both the TP53 mutation frequency as well as the number of TP53 mutations in mitotic-age-responders. These data support the potential usage of antiprogestins for primary prevention of poor-prognostic breast cancers. Clinical trial 1 Mifepristone treatment prior to insertion of a levonorgestrel releasing intrauterine system for improved bleeding control – a randomized controlled trial, clinicaltrialsregister.eu, 2009-009014-40; registered on 20 July 2009. Clinical trial 2 The effect of a progesterone receptor modulator on breast tissue in women with BRCA1 and 2 mutations, clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01898312; registered on 07 May 2013. Clinical trial 3 A pilot prevention study of the effects of the anti- progestin Ulipristal Acetate (UA) on surrogate markers of breast cancer risk, clinicaltrialsregister.eu, 2015-001587-19; registered on 15 July 2015.

2023

The WID‐EC test for the detection and risk prediction of endometrial cancer

James E. Barrett*, Allison Jones*, Iona Evans*, and 21 more authors

International Journal of Cancer, 2023

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The incidence of endometrial cancer is rising. Measures to identify women at risk and to detect endometrial cancer earlier are required to reduce the morbidity triggered by the aggressive treatment required for advanced endometrial cancer. We developed the WID‐EC (Women’s cancer risk IDentification‐Endometrial Cancer) test, which is based on DNA methylation at 500 CpG sites, in a discovery set of cervical liquid‐based cytology samples from 1086 women with and without an endometrial cancer (217 cancer cases and 869 healthy controls) with a worse prognosis (grade 3 or ≥stage IB). We validated the WID‐EC test in an independent external validation set of 64 endometrial cancer cases and 225 controls. We further validated the test in 150 healthy women (prospective set) who provided a cervical sample as part of the routine Swedish cervical screening programme, 54 of whom developed endometrial cancer within 3 years of sample collection. The WID‐EC test identified women with endometrial cancer with a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92 (95% CI: 0.88‐0.97) in the external set and of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.74‐0.89) in the prospective validation set. Using an optimal cutoff, cancer cases were detected with a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 90% in the external validation set, and a sensitivity and specificity of 52% and 98% respectively in the prospective validation set. The WID‐EC test can identify women with or at risk of endometrial cancer. The endometrial cancer incidence is rising, and imaging‐based screening is often not suitably accurate for endometrial cancers. Here, the authors show that a new DNA methylation signature (Women’s cancer risk IDentification‐Endometrial Cancer, or WID‐EC) can both detect the presence and predict the risk of endometrial cancer. Together with three other recently‐reported methylation indices that detect breast, ovarian, and cervical cancers (WID‐BC, WID‐OC, and WID‐CIN), WID‐EC completes a list of signatures that can detect/predict all four women‐specific cancers using a single cervical sample and the same technology platform for methylation array‐based tests.